Friday, February 6, 2015

Breaking free from the Shinawatras



If a Facebook exchange is any indication, Thaksin's clan might be losing its political influence


 

We can empathise with the sentiment that Thai politics is like a dog chasing its tail. The political fortunes of the Shinawatras and their opponents have usually moved in opposite directions. There are signs now, however, that this might no longer be the case in the immediate aftermath of Yingluck Shinawatra's impeachment.

As interim Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's popularity ratings continue to struggle against the force of gravity, he can at least take heart in knowing that key figures in the government he overthrew last year are faring no better. The Shinawatras are garnering fewer and fewer benefits from setbacks to Thai democracy.

Yingluck's impeachment by the military-installed interim legislature last week challenges the critics' theory that she and her family hid behind democracy and reaped gains by appearing to be victims of undemocratic conspiracies. The impeachment also tests the family's supporters and any other Thais with democratic resolve, who again saw their leaders of choice sidelined by controversial means.

It doesn't matter for the moment whether the Shinawatras abused democracy or were rather abused by opponents of democracy. They have evidently lost that shield, as signalled, in one instance, by Somsak Jeamteerasakul. The hardcore leftist mocked Panthongthae Shinawatra after Thaksin's son responded to his aunt's impeachment with the rallying cry, "Are you ready?"

Panthongthae was clearly urging his Facebook followers to stand up and fight. Somsak, unimpressed, suggested that the Shinawatras often call for a fight - for democracy - when events turn against them. "Where have you been since the coup?" he asked Panthongthae.

Coming from a critic of the family, this could have been dismissed as just another smear, but Somsak is indisputably on the red-shirt side. His challenge to Panthongthae speaks volumes.

The red-shirt uprising in 2010 came weeks after a court ruled that billions of baht of the family's assets should be seized. Thaksin's subsequent belligerent speeches were broadcast live at the protest rallies.

The Shinawatras' political and personal interests have always been intertwined. Somsak appeared to be pointing out that their "calls to arms" tend to come only when they take direct hits as individuals rather than as a result of attacks on anyone's values, principles or policies. Meanwhile opponents of the clan scored their most effective victories by underscoring how the Shinawatras' vested interests overshadowed all else.

Before Thaksin was ousted in the 2006 coup, what had been a lukewarm anti-government movement boiled up at revelations of his tax-free sale of Shin Corp to a foreign firm. The "whistle-blowing" uprising of the Bangkok middle class at the end of 2012 came after a Pheu |Thai-dominated House of Representatives rushed through an amnesty bill that looked like it might whitewash Thaksin and return his seized assets.

In the course of events, Thailand has been divided into a "pro-democracy" camp that unconditionally supports the Shinawatras and an "anti-democracy" opposing them, so called because it accepts any means necessary to block them from power. Most people realise this is an oversimplified analysis. That should become clearer thanks to Somsak's condemnation of Panthongthae on Facebook.

The Nation, Bangkok

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