South and Central Asia leaders sign an agreement that appears to have
little chance of going anywhere.
On Tuesday, those pushing
the interconnectivity of Central and South Asia saw, according to Pakistani
officials, an “historic accord.” Representatives from Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan gathered in Istanbul to formalize agreements behind
the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project
(CASA-1000). Planned to export a total of 1,300 MW of excess summer
electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – sending 1,000 MW to Pakistan and
300 MW to Afghanistan – and to be completed by 2018, the agreement, according to Pakistani politician Khurram Dastgir Khan,
represented the final touches of a “visionary project.” U.S. Deputy Secretary
of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Fatema Sumar said that the
signing showed the region “taking real steps to connect their energy
grid[.]”
Lofty
speech and admirable goals. But given the current energy situation on the
ground – and for the foreseeable future – CASA-1000 currently stands as another
interregional project stocked with rhetoric but short on reality. Much like the
U.S.-backed TAPI pipeline, CASA-1000 appears largely an exercise in
pointlessness – a waste of time and capital, and further evidence that
Washington’s policy in the region remains stuck on projects that show a disconcerting
lack of understanding of the facts on the ground.
But
whereas TAPI at least contains a nugget of potential –
Turkmenistan, after all, appears to have the requisite gas to reach Pakistani
and Indian markets – CASA-1000 cannot even boast sufficient supply to make the
project worthwhile. As currently structured, the project would see Tajikistan
supply 70 percent of the requisite electricity, with Kyrgyzstan supplying the
remaining 30 percent. Again, this notion remains fine on paper – until you
realize that Kyrgyzstan is currently facing a 2.5bil kW/h electricity shortfall
this winter, and has been forced to import electricity
from Kazakhstan, with Turkmenistan and Russia also in discussions for
additional supply. (A recent announcement from Gazprom
further illustrated Kyrgyzstan’s energy woes, with southern Kyrgyzstan now
likely to be without gas delivery for years to come.) How the CASA-1000 project
plans to compensate for the fact that one of its planned exports is currently
facing a massive shortfall, US and regional officials would not say.
Nor would
they address the fact that CASA-1000 remains one of the few multilateral
interregional projects that could very well exacerbate regional tensions. Both
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have demanded that their
major hydropower projects – including Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam, currently planned
as the world’s largest dam – remain included in the grid. Tajikistan President
Emomali Rakhmon has gone so far as to say that CASA-1000 “is not profitable
unless two units of Rogun [hydropower plant] are running.” Uzbekistan, which
relies heavily on hydro imports from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, disagrees – and
has pushed back against the entire concept of CASA-1000. As a 2013 letter from
Tashkent to the World Bank, which supports CASA-1000, explained, “The
implementation of the CASA-1000 Project is integral with the plans of the Tajik
and Kyrgyz participants to construct gigantic hydro-engineering facilities –
the Rogun HPP and [Kyrgyzstan’s] Kambarata HPP-I, which will catastrophically
aggravate the already tense water management situation in the region.”
The letter and rhetoric dovetails off of Uzbekistan
President Islam Karimov’s prior comments that water
demands in the region “can spark not simply serious confrontation but even
wars.” That’s not to say CASA-1000 will provide the final guarantee for some
kind of hydro-based hostilities – CASA-1000, again, stands little likelihood of
actual enactment for the foreseeable future, no matter what inflated rhetoric American
and regional officials use. But yesterday’s signing certainly doesn’t soothe
tensions, and only offers Karimov further fodder. CASA-1000 currently serves
only to distract from projects that could actually alleviate current and
forthcoming tensions. Yesterday’s accord may have been historic, but the
project will almost certainly
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