South Asia on cusp of strategic realignment?

The South Asian region seems ripe for a strategic realignment, although no one cares to talk about it openly. The Russian report to the effect that Moscow is ending its self-imposed arms embargo on Pakistan amounts to a signal that the tectonic plates of the geopolitics of the region are shifting. 

If the report is true — RIA Novosti is an official news agency — this is further confirmation that India and Russia are drifting apart. From a stance of benign neglect of the relationship in the post-cold war era, the two countries are careering away from each other. 

The Manmohan Singh government consciously atrophied India’s ties with Russia and in the haste to build mil-to-mil relations with the US, Russia’s preeminence as India’s number 1 arms supplier was steadily whittled down. Simply put, Uncle Sam has replaced Ivan in the Delhi darbar and that’s precisely what the doctor in Washington prescribed. 

The proverbial last nail on the coffin could have been the impasse over Kudankulam 3 and 4 due to American pressure. It should be no surprise if the Russians feel thoroughly disillusioned. 

At any rate, Moscow has understood that it is steadily losing ground in the Indian market to the American (and israeli) arms manufacturers. Meanwhile, Japan is also knocking at the door, poised to enter the Indian market. 

The alacrity with which the new government in Delhi is fast tracking the proposal to allow 100 percent foreign direct investment in the defence sector is virtually tailor-made for the American and Japanese companies to take over India’s arms industry. The doctor in Washington prescribed that, too. 

The Russians have understood that it is about time to move on. Pakistan is virgin soil for Russian arms industry. But then, there is always more to arms sales than commercial considerations. Such transactions also imply a highly strategic partnership and they emanates out of a high degree of strategic congruence. A Russian-Pakistani-Chinese axis has profound implications for regional security. It isolates India in its region. 

India’s tilt toward the US’ rebalance strategy in Asia, which was subtle or nuanced during the UPA rule can be expected to become more pronounced under the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. On the other hand, the US’ ties with China and Russia have come under great stress lately. 

Maybe, the fallout is not to be measured in coffee spoons or put into water-tight ‘blocs’ — at least, not yet — but my forecast is that India will be alone among the South Asian countries to gravitate toward the US’ rebalance strategy. 

India’s neighbors are either likely to borrow from India’s old repertoire and remain ‘non-aligned’ or, more likely, they might edge closer to China and Russia. No doubt, their top priority will be to keep the Indian wolf at arm’s length. 

It is anybody’s guess whether such a realignment would enhance India’s regional standing in South Asia or diminish it. Our elites and right-wing nationalists would probably think that being the ‘natural ally’ of the US is any day worth its weight in gold in comparison with the wretched company that our impoverished decrepit South Asian neighbors offer. If only India could choose its neighbors…By M K Bhadrakumar