Thirty-five
years ago, Ezra Vogel's "Japan as Number One" was a best-selling book
that described Japan's amazing economic growth after its devastating defeat in
World War II.
Today,
Japan has fallen to number three due to the huge economic gains made in recent
years by China.
In an
interview with The Asahi Shimbun, Vogel, a professor emeritus at Harvard
University who has studied not only Japan, but China as well, was asked how
Japan should behave in the international community with its diminished stature.
He also
spoke about how Japan's recent diplomatic spats with China and South Korea over
historical issues were being viewed in the United States ahead of U.S.
President Barack Obama's visit to Japan on April 23-25.
Excerpts of
the interview follow:
Question: After Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Yasukuni Shrine, the U.S.
government expressed its disappointment. What is your assessment?
Vogel: I was also
disappointed. If relations with China and South Korea should worsen, the
situation in Asia will become unstable.
In his first
stint as prime minister, Abe's Cabinet was described as one made up of friends.
This time, he has gathered Cabinet members with somewhat more experience.
Last August
(when Japan observed the anniversary marking the end of World War II), he did
not visit Yasukuni.
That is why
when I visited Japan in September 2013, and was asked if Abe was a pragmatic
person or a right-wing individual, I could say with hope, "He is likely
more pragmatic now."
Both
Congress and the White House expressed their position as an ally and passed on
their desire that Abe not go to Yasukuni. However, their desires were not taken
into great consideration.
Q: Are you
saying that he is a hard-liner?
A: Rather than
a hard-liner, he may be patriotic. But, at the very least, he did not place
importance on the Japan-China relationship.
Much like
former U.S. President Richard Nixon, who was anti-communist but who normalized
relations with China, I had hopes that even with his background as a
hard-liner, Abe would make bold moves to construct a new relationship with
China.
After he did
not visit Yasukuni in August, I thought there might be a chance for him to
build a good relationship with China, but China continued to take a hard-line
stance against Japan. He might have felt if that is the case, he might as well
just go ahead and visit Yasukuni.
Q: How do you
feel about the increasing view in Japan that considers China a threat?
A: The
Japan-U.S. alliance played a role in resolving various difficult issues around
the world. At the same time, when we think about what nation we have to have
dialogue with, that would be China.
With its
greater military and economic power, China tends to hold views on international
issues that are different from those held by Japan and the United States. However,
those issues will not be resolved without China's consent.
Q: Are you
saying it is short-sighted to view China simply in an adversarial manner?
A: Japan's
government and its politicians have not sufficiently researched in a strategic
manner Japan's relationship with the rest of the world.
Under the
1955 political structure (in which the Liberal Democratic Party ruled and the
Japan Socialist Party was the main opposition party), LDP faction leaders such
as Yasuhiro Nakasone and Takeo Fukuda (who both served as prime minister) had a
strategic way of thinking.
However,
since the 1990s after the end of the Cold War, I have not sensed a long-term
vision among the Japanese politicians that I have spoken to. After Junichiro
Koizumi, there has been an almost annual turnover of prime ministers.
Q: There are
some people in Japan who are worried over whether the United States will really
come to the assistance of Japan should a military encounter occur over the
Senkaku Islands. What is your view?
A: Because of
the alliance, there is no doubt that the United States will help should the
situation call for it.
If there was
no provocation by Japan, and China clearly launched an attack, there would be
both a desire and meaning to helping Japan.
Although
there are problems with the U.S. military bases in Okinawa, there is a relationship
of trust between the U.S. military stationed in Japan and the Self-Defense
Forces.
However,
when we think about future trends in the U.S. government budget, Japanese
leaders will likely have to think about whether the U.S. military presence in
the Asia-Pacific region will be the same in 10 years as today.
Q: How do you
assess the greater cooperation between China and South Korea in taking a
hard-line stance toward Japan on historical recognition issues?
A: The
psychology of the South Korean people is very complicated. Even those who have
close friends in Japan may say they hate Japan out of a sense of patriotism.
Because the Korean Peninsula is connected to China and when we look at history
in terms of a few centuries, there is also a concern of a possible invasion by
China.
There is
likely a consciousness of wanting to join hands with China, which is viewed as
a latent threat.
Q: What is your
appraisal about the moves in China and South Korea over the issue of
"comfort women," who provided sexual services to the Japanese
military before and during World War II?
A: From the
Japanese standpoint, there may be the feeling that the issue has already been
settled diplomatically. But that is not how South Korea views the issue.
If Japan
tries to legitimize its position by bringing up debate about whether coercion
was involved, its international appraisal will only worsen. It is important for
Japan to maintain good diplomatic relations with the international community.
To achieve
that, even if there is the feeling that it is unfair, there will be a need for
Japan to continue apologizing as the aggressor in order to build a good
relationship.
Q: In the
minds of the Japanese, they have already apologized a number of times, in the
form of the Murayama statement of 1995 and the Kono statement of 1993. They
would likely feel why is there a need to apologize again. What is your view of
that position?
A: From my
perspective, many Japanese feel that what was bad was militarism and that
ordinary Japanese did not do anything bad, but were, in fact, the victims.
Of course,
the Japanese were victims due to the dropping of the atomic bombs, but from the
eyes of foreigners, there is a decisive lack of awareness among the Japanese
that they were the aggressors with respect to neighboring nations.
Q: Isn't there
the view in Germany that what was bad were the Nazis?
A: Because I
was born in a Jewish family, I have a personal interest in the issue.
Among the
German people, there is the feeling of guilt that not only were the Nazis bad,
but that they also were wrong and committed mistakes. For that reason, what
they have done is to construct museums that describe their wartime aggression.
German
leaders continue to bow their heads and offer apologies.
While the
Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum does have displays about wartime aggression,
there is also the Yushukan museum within the grounds of Yasukuni Shrine that
has displays that justify Japan's wartime aggression in Asia. That would be
unthinkable in Germany.
Q: Even if the
Class-A war criminals were no longer included among those enshrined at
Yasukuni, that would not likely lead to a weakening of the opposition raised by
China and South Korea, would it?
A: There would
be much less opposition if the Class-A war criminals were not enshrined and
there was no Yushukan. The Chinese feel there is no need for leaders to visit a
place that has Class-A war criminals and the Yushukan.
In fact,
after the Class-A war criminals were enshrined at Yasukuni, Emperor Showa and
the current emperor have not visited Yasukuni. Even Nakasone has not visited
Yasukuni since 1985.
Q: How do you
view the debate concerning the 1937 Nanking Incident that the number of victims
should be made much smaller?
A: If in
relation to the view that there were 300,000 victims, the Japanese said,
"There were not that many victims," the Chinese would become angry.
The heart of
the issue is, even if the number is smaller, there is no way to justify the
actions taken by the former imperial Japanese military. From the standpoint of
the victims, they would likely play up the point that the Japanese were taking
the position of saying they did nothing wrong.
If I were a
Japanese, this is what I would likely say. There are various views as to the
number of victims. Despite that, the Japanese people and the Japanese soldiers
of that time did terrible things to the Chinese. The Japanese will never do
those things again.
Q: Do you feel
there is a move toward historical revisionism in Japan?
A: Abe and
some of his close associates hold the view that what was decided at the
International Military Tribunal for the Far East by the victorious nations in
World War II was not right. I also feel that more people are coming forward
with that feeling than before.
I think Abe
may have been thinking about his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, the former prime
minister who was charged as a Class-A war criminal but not indicted.
Q: Could that
possibly lead to feelings of hatred toward the United States?
A: The Japanese
and Americans have a very good relationship. Compared to the relationship
between Japan and China as well as between Japan and South Korea, I believe
there has been sufficient reconciliation with the United States in the 70 years
after World War II.
Q: What is
your view of the debate over efforts by the Abe administration to change the
constitutional interpretation regarding the exercise of the right to collective
self-defense?
A: From the
standpoint of Americans, they would likely feel that the SDF should assist them
if North Korea launched a missile toward the continental United States or if
the situation arose that led to victims among the U.S. military in Japan.
For that
reason, it is my personal view that it is only natural from the standpoint of the
United States for Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense.
However,
regarding the Constitution, if Japan should now proceed to amend it, that would
only worsen its relations with China and South Korea.
I feel that
would be dangerous.
From the
standpoint of the United States, there is the worry that Abe will do something
provocative toward China or South Korea.
***
The
interview was conducted in Japanese, and excerpts were translated into English
by The Asahi Shimbun.
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