In his first trip to the region
after becoming US Secretary of State and after a whistle stop in South Korea
John Kerry flew into Beijing to meet with China's State Councilor Yang Jiechi
and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Saturday.
If one reads the BBC reports about this meeting, they appear written in a
manner to make us believe that China is sympathetic to the US version of
events and condemning "any provocative acts" from North Korea.
However this is a quote from John Kerry himself, rather than any official
statement from the Chinese Government. In fact Yang Jiechi stated that China
is "firmly committed to upholding peace and stability and advancing the
denuclearization process on the Korean Peninsula...peaceful through
dialogue," without any further elaboration.
The only agreement the US got with China, according to the Chinese press,
which admittedly wouldn't give away any propaganda victories to Kerry and the
US even if Yang and Wang had agreed to help, was that both sides agreed to
further discussions.
So what was the purpose of Kerry's trip to China?
The chronology of events on the Korean Peninsula is well known. However in
the western media, events have been portrayed in a manner where anything that
North Korea says is a provocation and anything the US does is a necessary
defensive response. This is hardly objective when North Korea is well known for
its "aggressive statements" especially around the time of the joint
US-South Korean Foal Eagle joint military exercises each year.
This is not to say that the North is the innocent bystander in all of this.
The North Korean official media is not slow in making threats and statements
that intentionally add to the tension. This confrontation is also very
opportune for the young Kim Jong-un in consolidating his position as leader
within the country. In fact, one of the consequences of this action is that it
may actually be raising Kim to the status of a "hero" inside the
North and hardening the support of those around him.
Much of what is going on, the rhetoric, the drama, the closure of the Kaesong
industrial zone, etc. is to consolidate North Korea's citizens of the support
of their leaders, all leading up to the coming spectacular to celebrate
Korea's first leader Kim Il sung's birthday on April 15th. This confrontation
has ensured that there will be no letting up on authoritarianism in North
Korea, or chance of opening the economy to the outside world for years to
come.
However, North Korea's statements have not been followed with any specific
actions, except the closing of the Kaesong Industrial Zone, and the US is not
just talking but moving some of its most sophisticated military hardware
right onto the North's doorstep. North Korea may be guilty of verbal
escalation, but the US is the only party that has actually escalated anything
militarily, although the western media is continually warning of possible
North Korean military action, which until today has not happened or even
looks like happening.
Every BBC online article publishes a map of the supposed range of North
Korean missiles and warheads, which have not even been tested by North Korean
to validate these claims. No articles have asked whether North Korea actually
has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons that are capable of being put on
missiles as warheads? From the test of a crude bomb to miniaturizing bombs
that actually work is a major step in technology, which is unlikely Korea
possesses at present.
Some very brief historical context may shed some light on this show of force
not witnessed for decades.
The Clinton Administration signed an accord with North Korea's then leader
Kim Il-sung where Japan agreed to build a light water reactor for electricity
generation and supply oil until the reactor was ready to go online. The then
South Korean President Kim Dae-jung also initiated the "Sunshine
policy" with the North in an effort to build up trust and cooperation
which would lead to an eventual form of unification, a deep aspiration of
most Koreans.
It was out of this agreement with Kim Dae-jung's successor Roh Moo-jung that
a further agreement was made to build the Kaesong Industrial Zone, something
that gave a symbolic connection between the North and South. This eventually
led to an exchange of visits in 2000 between the US and North Korea where
then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright went to Pyongyang and Vice
Marshal Jo Myong-rok, the second in command in North Korea visited
Washington. At this point the US and North Korea were on the verge of
official diplomatic recognition and the North agreeing to end its missile
testing program.
However, upon the inauguration of George W. Bush as President the pending
missile agreement didn't precede as the new administration did not believe
North Korea could be trusted. Then came 9/11 and President Bush labeled North
Korea one of the "axis of evil" in the forerunning rhetoric to the
wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
US accusations in 2002 that North Korea was operating a uranium enrichment
plant saw application of further sanctions on North Korea. The North, seeing
news footage of the US invasion of Iraq, would have easily contributed to Pyongyang
believing that this could happen to them.
In 2006 North Korea exploded its first small nuclear bomb. This at the time
led to some skepticism where some believed the explosion was faked with an
extremely large amount of TNT.
President Bush under Condoleezza Rice's advice urged US participation in
six-party talks with North Korea involving China, Japan, Russia, and both
North and South Korea. These talks led to North Korea blowing up the Yongbyon
cooling tower as proof that no uranium enrichment would take place.
Then in 2008 when Barack Obama was running for the US Presidency and promised
that his administration would talk to both Iran and North Korea, there was
some hope in Pyongyang that the steady peace process might continue. However
upon Obama taking office this hope was quickly dashed with the new Secretary
of State Hilary Clinton adopting the doctrine of "strategic
patience" waiting for Kim Jong-Il to die and see a regime collapse
through internal power struggles.
Both Obama and Clinton made it clear to North Korea that there would be no
more talks until the North renounced nuclear weapons and opened up the
country. Kim Jong-Il soon died after, passing on leadership to his son Kim
Jong-un, without any change in policy or outlook.
In addition South Korea's then President Lee Myung-bak also took a harder
line on North Korea, dismantling the sunshine policies of his predecessors.
In 2010 the Obama Administration sent a delegation of former high-ranking
officials to Pyongyang who met with senior officials of Kim Jong-Il's
government. It was reported that even though North Korea was willing to ship
out all nuclear fuel rods to a third country in exchange for a US pledge that
it had no hostile intent towards North Korea, the Obama administration wasn't
interested.
Then in March 2010, North South relations deteriorated with the torpedoing of
the ROKS Cheonan, a South Korean Warship, killing 46 South Korean sailors.
Although the North has denied responsibility for this act, an investigation
in the South put the blame on the North although China, Russia and the United
Nations Security Council, under pressure from China and Russia, did not
concur with the conclusion of that report.
Then the North warned the South if any shells during a South Korean military
exercise landed across the disputed border, they would retaliate with
shelling of their own, which they did, killing seven civilians on the Island
of Yeonpyeong. South Korea, appalled with the North's retaliation, continued
the exercises scaling up tensions in the area. These tensions only subsided
when the South stopped the exercises upon US warnings.
The current tensions were started by the North launching a satellite into
orbit, which many countries have done before. Then in February, the North
carried out another nuclear test and the UN placed further sanctions.
Tensions continued to rise with escalation of talk and sabre rattling as the
world has been watching over the last month.
From the North's perspective, the United States literally bombed North Korean
into the ground during the Korean War - after, of course, then-leader Kim
Il-Sung started the war - and they showed during the Iraq war that they are
fully capable of doing it again. Kaesong Industrial Zone is something that is
very symbolic of Korean unity and its closure could be viewed as a display of
the North's anger towards the South's rhetoric. Finally, with China's change
in direction over the last few years, Pyongyang could be a little uncertain
about China's support if a war with the US eventuated.
The North talks of annihilating the US, while the US talks about bringing
down the current regime in Pyongyang. Administration rhetoric and media
reporting about this "reckless regime bent on nuclear war"
according to US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel presents what he called "a
real and clear danger and threat". The buildup of US defensive missile
systems on Guam, Alaska and on the West Coast of the United States to counter
this "grave threat" will require funding.
One wonders how much did the issue of future military funding come into the
administration's calculations? Media reports indicate a change in many
congress members' attitudes to funding cuts sine these tensions started.
Then last Thursday President Obama and his spokespeople sort to calm down the
situation through winding back the military exercises with South Korea to
lower tensions. Then came Secretary of State Kerry's trip to the region on
Friday.
The United States cannot really afford military action against Korea, it's
not in their interest. North Korea is a good enemy to have, and can be
managed through raising and lowering tensions on the peninsula. Korea is a
good excuse to place military hardware close to China in the East Asian
region. A collapsing North would be a disaster for the US, which would result
either in a united Korea where there would no longer be any excuse for a
strong military presence, or there could be some conflict between China and
the US to install some other form of order in the vacuum.
So Secretary Kerry's trip to China may have been the result of a
miscalculation by the administration in heightening tensions on the Korean
peninsula where any further escalation could lead to irrational responses in
defense. From a North perspective an attack could be seen as the best defense
in these tensions.
In realizing this miscalculation John Kerry had to visit China to seek some
form of face saving measure where the US could unilaterally de-escalate the
rhetoric and action without being seen to back down.
This points to very poor policy handling on the part of the Obama
Administration in this episode. Unfortunately the Clinton approach of the
1990s was dropped in favor of the Bush-Cheney "strategic competition and
aggression" doctrine. This escalation was aimed at both "enhancing
North Korea's image as an enemy", and making an excuse for more military
activity in the region. By doing so the Obama Administration is the first to
trigger a Chinese Level One military mobilization in many years since the
Korean War.
With the US putting conditions on North Korea before the six party talks can
be resumed, the Administration is playing tactical military games with North
Korea without any ability to communicate which is extremely dangerous. Maybe
Kim Jong-un's message through Dennis Rodman "Obama should call me"
did have more significance to it than was given credence at the time.
For the citizens of the region, it appears the media has also played some
role in heightening the tensions. In fact the playing up of tensions may have
put the Obama Administration in the corner in need to save face and
deescalate tensions. There has been very little reporting from the North
Korean perspective where most media has chosen to report only what the US
Administration is saying. Even the London School of Economics has put in a
formal complaint to the BBC because BBC officials didn't disclose their true
intentions of making a derogatory documentary about North Korea during a
student visit there.
If there is to be a long term solution to the Korean Peninsula the Obama
Administration needs to think very hard about what they need to do, as what
they are currently doing is not working. Secondly, the media through skewed
reporting has actually become one of the tools of the US Administration
during this Korean escalation. The memories of weapons of mass destruction
and the Iraqi war are still fresh and that makes one worry if the truth has
been the greatest casualty of this incident.
(Murray Hunter is an Australian academic and frequent Asia Sentinel
contributor living in Malaysia) |
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