Some have even speculated that the Muslim world throughout North Africa and the Middle East will now follow the examples of the fall of the Iron Curtain and the collapse of communism in Europe — events that nobody predicted until they actually happened — and that Tunisia and Egypt are the beginning of a wave that will sweep away other notoriously autocratic regimes in the region as well.
This week, tens of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets demanding an end to Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule of the country. Until only very recently, this was considered unimaginable as Mubarak has ruled his country with an iron fist and brutally oppressed even the slightest expression of disenchantment by the people. He has made thousands disappear off the streets and locked them up in prisons where torture was the rule in order to cast fear into the hearts of the general population and keep them far away from even thinking about revolting.
However, much the same could have been said about Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s rule over Tunisia.
His recent removal from power in the Tunisian “Jasmine Revolution” has made the ouster of Mubarak a distinct possibility as well.
What happens next remains to be seen, but it is already clear that we are witness to truly momentous occurrences.
Some have even speculated that the Muslim world throughout North Africa and the Middle East will now follow the examples of the fall of the Iron Curtain and the collapse of communism in Europe — events that nobody predicted until they actually happened — and that Tunisia and Egypt are the beginning of a wave that will sweep away other notoriously autocratic regimes in the region as well.
And there could be some truth in that. As Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center noted, the “barrier of fear” that so far kept the Muslim masses under the control of their ruling elites has been broken by the Tunisian revolt.
Neighboring countries such as Algeria, Syria, Jordan and Yemen, where people live under similar conditions, are watching events closely.
News reports have made it clear that the events have also caused some uneasiness in the Western world.
Witnessing the people of Tunisia and Egypt revolt against their rulers raises questions, as both Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt have over the years received considerable support from Western countries.
America has been supporting Egypt to the tune of $2 billion a year, making it the second-largest recipient of American foreign aid. Tunisia was the “poster boy” of the IMF.
And even during the revolt, when Tunisian police had already killed 27 protesters, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France still defended Ben Ali, stating on television “To say that Tunisia is a one-man dictatorship seems to me quite exaggerated,” while his minister of foreign affairs, Michele Alliot-Marie, offered Ben Ali the support of the French soldiers to suppress the demonstrations.
Most uneasiness in the West, however, especially initially, was caused by the possibility of an “Islamist” takeover in either of the countries.
At this stage this hasn’t occurred and the fact that in most protests — though not all — the featured slogans were “democracy” and “freedom” and not “Islam,” has calmed this worry down to a large extent.
Yet, it could be argued that an Islamist takeover is still the most likely outcome of the events in Tunisia and Egypt and that the threat exists for regimes in Algeria, Syria, Jordan and Yemen.
For although Islamists might seem largely absent in the protests right now, anyone familiar with the region knows that Islamist sentiments and inclinations are never completely absent in North Africa.
This is proven by the fact that the burial of Mohammed Bouazizi, the young Tunisian who set himself alight in protest against Ben Ali and thereby started the popular uprising, featured slogans like “The martyr is loved by Allah!”
And also by the fact that the organizers of the demonstration in Egypt on Tuesday felt themselves forced to ask the demonstrators not to show their religious views, and begged the people to bring only Egyptian flags and no religious symbols.
Nevertheless, the protests started off with a mass prayer in the square where the people gathered.
But most important, however, is the fact that most Muslims understand from the words “democracy” and “freedom” something different than how these words are understood in the West.
This has been shown again and again by opinion polls conducted around the Muslim world.
The most recent PEW survey of Muslims showed that majorities view democracy as the most preferable form of government (59 percent in Egypt, 65 percent in Indonesia, 69 percent in Jordan and 81 percent in Lebanon) while even more desire a large role for Islam in politics (Egypt 85 percent and Indonesia 91 percent).
This apparent contradiction results from the fact that most Muslims do not see “democracy” necessarily as a secular system of government.
Most Muslims consider democracy as simply being a system of government that allows the people to hold their rulers to account.
And having lived under autocratic and corrupt rulers for many decades, it is easy to understand why Muslims desire this.
In fact, the concept of secularism is wholly alien to many Muslims, which is also proven by the same opinion polls.
The Pew poll showed that support exists for the introduction of Islamic laws like stoning for adultery (Egypt 82 percent, Jordan 70 percent, Indonesia 42 percent) and the death penalty for apostasy (Egypt 84 percent, Indonesia 30 percent).
Seeing the Muslims on the streets in Tunisia and Egypt calling for “freedom” makes clear, then, that this word also must mean something different to them.
In the West, “freedom” is intrinsically linked to secularism as its essence is that people should be allowed to do whatever they want to do, irrespective of religious teachings.
But many Muslims come from a situation where religious views are systematically persecuted.
For instance, Tunisia banned the Islamic headscarf and threw women in prison for wearing it.
And both Tunisia and Egypt had the practice of throwing into prison any person with the habit of praying in the mosque regularly. So what most Muslims mean when they call for freedom is the right to live according to their religious views.
All this means is that in contrast with what has been the storyline in the media, the revolts in North Africa are intrinsically linked to Islam.
And that although the present attempts at revolution do not (yet) call for an Islamic state, it may be only a matter of time before a revolution comes along that will.
By Idries de Vries an analyst of economic and geopolitical affairs based in Jakarta.
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