INDONESIA Election Analysis
Here are some back-of-the-envelope calculations and scenarios based on early "quick count" results from the 9 April 2009 Parliamentary DPR elections (available as of midnight Jakarta time on 9 April). Final vote counts could vary from these numbers, but most of the
analysis presented would hold:
Avg Est
2009 2009 2004 2004
PARTY % Seats % Seats
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Demokrat 20.4 138 7.5 55
Golkar 14.5 98 21.6 128
PDIP 14.2 96 18.5 109
PKS 7.6 51 7.3 45
PAN 5.6 38 6.4 53
PPP 5.3 36 8.2 58
PKB 5.2 35 10.6 52
Gerindra 4.9 33 0 0
Hanura 3.5 24 0 0
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81.2% 550 seats
First some basic information and assumptions. Column one is an average of the 4 "quick counts." Only the 9 parties listed above appear likely to reach the 2.5% popular vote threshold needed to get even a single seat in the 550-seat DPR. These 9 parties constitute
81.2% of the total vote (which would have yielded only 447 seats without the exclusionary rule). These 9 parties will divide among themselves the remaining 103 seats in the DPR the smaller parties would have gotten. The numbers of seats in column two are very rough estimates, as actual seats rarely equal percentages of votes.
As expected, no party got the 25% of the popular vote needed to run a presidential candidate, although, also as expected, SBY's PD is the only party to get the 20% of the DPR seats (110) needed to run a candidate solo.
Alliances for the Presidency
SBY is likely to ally with PKS and PKB (neither is likely to ally with PDIP-Mega or Gerindra-Prabowo). This would give SBY a comfortable 224-seat base. Barring something dramatic happening with Golkar (see below), SBY might even offer PKS the vice-presidency.
The current strategy is for PDIP-Mega to ally with Golkar-Kalla. This would give Mega an easy 194 seats as a base for her run with Kalla once again as VP (and promises of a dominant role in domestic affairs). But if there is major Golkar drama (see below), Mega would have to find another ally.
The big question is whether there will be a third candidate. Gerindra-Prabowo must assemble 110 seats to run. If the alliances mentioned above hold, then there are only 132 seats left for grabs. Gerindra will get around 33. This is quite a splash for a one-year old party, but Prabowo needed to do a lot better. To get to 110 seats Prabowo must somehow get PAN (38) and PPP (36) and Hanura (24) to back him. PAN and PPP lean toward SBY but could be lured away (especially if money and several cabinet posts are offered). But the huge challenge is getting Hanura- Wiranto to sign on. There is a history of deep conflict between these two generals. Unless the final vote counts and seats work in Prabowo's favor, he will only have 107 of the 110 needed to run (meaning getting Wiranto becomes a must).
Golkar Drama
As expected, Golkar's performance was poor, dropping from 21.6 percent of the vote in 2004 to a pathetic 14.5 percent this round. Golkar is chock full of figures plotting to re-take the party if the elections were to go badly under Kalla's leadership. The top plotter is Akbar Tanjung, who wants to hold an Extraordinary National Convention (Munaslub) in May to push Kalla aside for failing the party. Nothing major happens in Golkar without tons of money, and Akbar doesn't have much. But replacing Kalla would be a major boon to SBY, as it would pave the way for re- allying with Golkar-Akbar (with Akbar as the VP). This would devastate SBY's opponents and cause a cascade effect in the alliance structure. Mega's alliance with Golkar-Kalla would be history. Her search for a replacement ally to reach the 110-seat threshold could threaten to eliminate Prabowo from
the presidential race. SBY could easily raise the funds needed to back Abkar's putsch within Golkar. Doing so would all but assure SBY's second term.
Rizal Ramli and One Last Scenario
There is one other interesting possibility that could arise, though the chances are remote. Rizal Ramli is the only non-New Order figure of prominence in the race. Problem is, he has no party. Instead, he heads the "Change Blok," which is made up of many of the parties (nearly 18% of the total vote collectively) that are cut out of the action because they did not
reach the 2.5% threshold.
Rizal cannot get 20% of the seats with this hodge- podge of parties because they get no seats. But a candidate can still run for the presidency with 25% of the popular vote. This is a tall order. Rizal would have to get all the excluded parties plus one or two of the parties that did reach the threshold.
Alternatively, Prabowo and his allies could ally with Rizal and his Change Blok and reach the 25% popular vote threshold. The same holds true for Wiranto and his Hanura party. These popular-vote scenarios assume the more than two dozen fractional parties could be
held together and not be picked off using money by the big players. Prabowo has the money to fend off such money challenges from Mega and SBY, but Rizal does not.
Jeffrey Winters
Northwestern University, Chicago
April 9, 2009
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