tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9083592332331184648.post1766685754231419165..comments2024-03-23T02:47:06.479-07:00Comments on Kerry B. Collison Asia News: When Trump went to Hong Kong looking for helpKerry B. Collisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02939821793284561307noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9083592332331184648.post-53265627324293853042016-03-19T14:03:34.846-07:002016-03-19T14:03:34.846-07:00Trump’s declared views on international relations ...Trump’s declared views on international relations could turn the world on its head. So where does Australia stand?<br />HE has hailed Vladimir Putin as a leader who knows what he’s doing, is fed up with some of America’s closest allies and opposes free trade: Donald Trump could be a President who changes the world order as Australia knows it. <br />AUSTRALIA IN THE FALLOUT ZONE<br />These perceived risks all swirl around Australia as much as they do any other nation of the world - the Federal Government is desperate to see the ambitious TPP ratified and as a close ally of the US, any escalation of terror threat would impact at home.<br />However, while Trump has made it clear he is keen to re-level the playing field with US allies, Australia may be safe on that front.<br />Professor of Political Science at Duke University and former employee of the Bush Administration Peter Feaver said despite Trump’s brewing war with America’s allies, Australia could be one of Trump’s favourites.<br /> “Australia might be the rare ally he might say something favourable about,” Professor Feaver said.<br />“Australia has the distinction of being the most reliable ally in terms of fighting war shoulder to shoulder with Americans - I don’t think there’s another country that’s been in as many conflicts on the side of the US as Australia.<br />“Trump is someone who believes that allies take advantage of the US. If you believe our allies take advantage of us, the ally that is hardest to make that case for is Australia.”<br />Professor Feaver said the US presence in Darwin was relatively small and would be unlikely to be an immediate priority for Trump, despite his dislike for expensive military posts around the world.<br />The other Trump policy that could instantly impact Australia is his disdain for free trade. He has flagged slapping a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and rails against the TPP - the ambitious free trade agreement Australia wants to get across the line.<br />“The TPP is a horrible deal,” Trump has repeated ad nauseam on the campaign trail.<br />It’s a world view also articulated by democratic frontrunner Hilllary Clinton.<br />Australian Trade Minister Steve Ciobo met with Obama’s chief trade negotiator Michael Froman last month, and was assured there was still hope for the deal.<br />Mr Ciobo has worked hard behind the scenes on the deal, along with new US ambassador Joe Hockey and former Trade Minister Andrew Robb.<br />It is understood Australia would consider sending a contingent to negotiate directly with members of congress if they were summonsed.<br />Professor Feaver noted that it’s difficult to know “which Trump” the world would get if he won the presidency, because the ferocity of the nomination process encourages candidates to be their most extreme version of themselves.<br />“No one knows which president Trump will be President Trump,” Professor Feaver said.<br />“The optimistic scenario says Trump is part blank slate and part marketing genius - and he doesn’t believe what he’s saying now but he understands he has to say it to get elected. Once he is elected…he will want to write policies that will be successful.”<br />Professor Feaver posited it was also possible that Trump was so driven by success that if he tried his policies and they failed he would adapt.<br />The “less optimistic” scenario, said Professor Feaver, was that the temperament of Trump on display so far continues into the administration and is reflected by his staff.<br />“In that scenario you get a very negative outcome,” he said. “Mr Trump will have many an hour to achieve mischief.”<br />Only time will tell.<br /><br />Kerry B. Collisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02939821793284561307noreply@blogger.com