Advace Book Release "Shadow of the Wheel"

Advance Review Book Title “Shadow of the Wheel”

Author: Pat Kelly

436 pages

Historical Fiction

RRP $24.95

ISBN-13: 978-1-925230-64-2

Sid Harta Publishers Melbourne Australia

 

About the Book

 

The mighty water-wheel at Laxey mines in the Isle of Man has been set in motion. In its great shadow, Sarah and Patrick have fallen in love. It is a love that must be kept secret, for Patrick is Irish. Sarah’s mother — Judith — has lost her mind and blames an Irishman for her husband being imprisoned ‘across the water’ in Liverpool, where she can never visit him.
The two young lovers desperately desire to wed and be together, but Judith’s increasing madness, which began when she lost some of her childer to a savage disease and deepened on her husband’s incarceration, proved too strong a pull.
Sarah’s deep loyalty to her mother also stands between the lovers, indeed life itself thwarts their every effort to find a way toward their happiness.
Patrick’s friend — Robert — is going to Australia to make his fortune mining for gold and has asked Patrick to accompany him. With no other option and seemingly with the cards stacked against them, Patrick and Sarah are both heartbroken.
Knowing that her mother will never recover from her illness and will always need her support, Sarah tells Patrick he must go with Robert to make a life for himself without her, and to forget her, and the love they share.

 

About the author

The author was born in Scotland a year before World War II started, but swears she didn’t cause it …
In January 1968 she arrived in Australia as a ‘Ten Pound Tourist’ with her, then, husband and four children.
After the breakup of her marriage after twenty-five years the author was contacted by a man named Mike Kelly, whom she had known in her teens and had had no contact with for nearly thirty years. Mike’s marriage having broken up around the same time as the author’s. On learning she was ‘on the loose’, he obtained her phone number by courtesy of his mother — International telephone enquiries — and the author’s mother, so rang to see if she was okay.
One thing led to another, they were married in 1988 and the both returned to the Isle of Man to start a new life. On Mike’s retirement, five years later, they followed the summers and spent half their lives in Australia and the other half in the Isle of Man.
In their months on the island each year, they ran a daffodil and plant nursery and were well known throughout the island for their roadside stall, where they sold their daffodils and plants.
As age caught up with them, they realised it was time to settle somewhere permanently. Being the warmer country, Australia won, and they moved there in 2014, to live in a retirement village in Lakes Entrance — one of the prettiest spots in Australia.
This, they both feel, will suit them until they climb in their boxes (but not for a long time yet) and move on to higher places.

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: The global warming hoax unveiled

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: The global warming hoax unveiled: Poor 'wooden' Al can't seem to catch a break. For eight long years they made him cover for charismatic horndog President,...

The global warming hoax unveiled

Poor 'wooden' Al can't seem to catch a break. For eight long years they made him cover for charismatic horndog President, Slick Willie, who could make panties drop and women swoon even at a funeral.

Poor Al couldn't even keep his own wife. Then they made him run for that office, which he actually won in the popular vote in 2000 but was robbed of it by the Supreme Court. "What now?" Poor Al wondered, knowing he was still under Faustian contract to the Dark Lord and a pact with the Devil is forever.

His next assignment was even worse. They put him out front as lead spear-catcher in their latest scheme to rule the world-- "THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX." Poor Al didn't have a choice. When the Dark Lord spoke, Al had to jump.

They thought a couple of World Wars and some fairly serious genocide would do the trick to completely subdue us back in the 20th century, but it didn't so they decided to change up their game for the 21st, and get us to voluntarily put ourselves under their yoke.

The new scheme--we'll give it code-name "Crispy Planet"--was created to manipulate world temperature data and produce the scariest ending imaginable--a world slow-roasting itself--and they would blame it all on us deplorable human cockroaches and our fossil fuels!

"It may already be too late to save yourselves," we were told by Apostle Al, "but maybe, just maybe I know a guy, who knows a guy, who can save you!"

All we had to do, we were told, was give up everything that made life comfortable or enjoyable, and hand over our God-given rights to the Dark Lord.

If we did that, these benevolent Globalist barons might save us, but we only had a few years to capitulate to their command--oh, and pay the $134 Trillion ransom under the Paris Climate deal, which was part of the scam.

Alternatively, they would let us drown in our own waste and spawn as the waters rose to engulf us, or they would let us fry to a crisp as the unyielding sun got ever hotter.

They weren't sure which, but it would be a terrible ending!

According to Washington Post journalist, Ben Bagdikian, just 15 of these Progressive billionaire wanna-be Rulers control 82% of world media and are for the most part singing in unison, whatever the topic, which I suspect is not by accident.

No matter which channel or network you turn on, they are even using the same text most days like a bunch of Mockingbirds, so it wasn't hard for this cohesive handful of Progressives to manipulate public opinion and they did a splendid job of it.

Most people in the world today now believe the Global Warming Hoax rather than what they see with their own eyes and feel on their own skin 20 years later.

A fellow Progressive of today’s Globalist barons from the National Socialist German Workers Party, Joseph Goebbels, was fond of saying, “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.

The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie.

It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

Today's Progressives live by Goebbels’ Big Lie maxim too, and the few scientists back in 2001 who stood up against this Big Lie--the Global Warming Hoax--such as Dr. Keith Briffa and Professor Phillip Jones, were quickly beaten back into submission.

Ultimately, they were forced to falsify their own data to match the Big Lie. They were threatened with excommunication from the Church of Pseudoscience and would be cast into irrelevance in Global Warming Hell if they did not do so, they were warned.

Most real scientists, however, are finally admitting that the Emperor is naked (though you don't hear much about that either), but it is true.

In fact, 31,487 real scientists--just in America--have signed a petition stating "there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane or greenhouse gases is causing, or will cause in the forseeable future, catastrophic rising in the earth's temperature."--while Al Gore and the Hole-in-the-Ozone Gang still claim "99.9% of them" are in unison that "Crispy Planet" is just a couple of Big Macs away due to farting cows and humans who like to breathe, eat, stay warm, and go places.

Nobel Prize-winning physicist, Dr. Ivar Gaiera, recently added his name and support to the Global Warming Petition, calling out the Globalist hoax to a completely deaf media--though it is one of the biggest pieces of news so far this century.

He revealed the truth about how the hoax came about back in 2001 saying that there were only 18 so-called 'scientists' who worked on this unsubstantiated allegation of human attribution in the first working group of the IPCC (Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change) report (#AR5) back in 2001.

Dr. Gaiera also revealed not only their names (listed below), but that at least three of them were just students, not scientists. I've yet to see Poor Al Gore's scientific credentials and we now know that the man behind his 'evidence' lied about his credentials.

So, let's take a look at the chart that Apostle Al and a man falsely claiming to be a "Nobel Prize winner", Michael E. Mann, used to fool the world--now famously known as "the hockey stick graph"--ostensibly showing our planet speeding to its end, 20 years ago. This chart was achieved by manipulating the data, and completely leaving out numbers that did not match their thesis, including the entire Medieval Warming Period between 950 and 1250 A.D. —during which wine grapes were being grown in Northern England—and the hottest years in recorded history such as 1910 and 1944. In short, it was a calculated fraud.

Instead of "Crispy Planet", however, data since 2000 shows that there has been no warming in 15 of those years and that the average temperature of the earth's surface has cooled by 1.4 degrees in just the past three.

The Southern Ice Cap is larger than ever, and 90% of the world’s islands and atolls are larger than a decade ago, ending the claim that ocean are rising.

Some scientists are now warning of a Mini Ice Age, while Globalists still cling to the hoax in hopes of fear-mongering their way into a modern feudalism with just two classes as there were throughout most of human history--Ruling Elites and peasants--with no one in the middle (except maybe their media and political servants).

So where do we go from here?

That's the $134 Trillion question, isn't it? The hoax may have been a good thing in the long-run, as badly as I hate to admit it, as it has made all of us more aware of the consequences of our actions.

Also, I'm still very worried about real environmental problems like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch of floating plastic covering 1.6 million square kilometres in the Pacific Ocean, and the dangerous decline in bee populations.

These are actual problems in need of real solutions, but we can quit being audacious enough to think that we can destroy Mother Earth so easily with normal human behaviours.

Actual numbers show that we cannot, though we should treat our home with far more respect, and that will be my own takeaway from what has now been dubbed “Climategate.”

We can also stop worrying about overpopulating the planet, as absent parts of India and Africa, populations are actually declining or in free fall.

Once these regions and societies advance even slightly--especially if the safety valve of flooding other continents with their unwanted is brought to a halt--they will quickly realize what every other maturing society has learned and be no different.

Ancient towns in Europe, such as Sambucca, Sicily built by the Greeks and voted ‘most beautiful’ in Italy are selling empty homes and villas for as little as 1 Euro, just to get people to come there.

Entire villages in France and Spain are uninhabited already, and the same will eventually happen throughout the world, especially if the Dark Lord loses to the Light and people outside these zones of over-breeding remain free.

The best way to save our planet is also the simplest. Adam Smith gave us a formula for the success of any nation, "Peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.”

Simple, right? But few nations have ever been true to these principles of success for long. Economic freedom, limited government, no more laws than absolutely necessary and any place on earth will thrive and stay beyond the clutches of the Dark Lord’s desire to rule us.

We will escape their latest attempt at world rule as well--and I give the new President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, much of the credit for that when he cancelled his nation’s participation in the Paris Climate Accord, putting the world on notice that he wasn't buying their story--and he's now been proven right. The biggest hoax in human history has been unveiled for what it was.

NOTE: These are the 18 'scientist/students' according to Nobel Prize winner and physicist, Dr. Ivar Gaiever, who started the Global Warming Hoax back in 2001. Make sure you don't hire them to work in your Donut Shoppe or for anything that requires math or integrity:

Kabumbwe HANSINGO

Rachid SEBBARI

Suman JAIN

Krishna-Mirle ACHUTARAO

Robert VAUTARD

Peter STOTT

Myles ALLEN

Nathan GILLETT

David GUTZLER

Nathaniel BINDOFF

Gabriele HEGERL

Yongyun HU

Igor MOKHOV

James OVERLAND

Judith PERLWITZ

Xuebin ZHANG

Judith BARTHOLY

Tetsuzo YASUNAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I

Howell W. Woltz

The International Centre for Justice

Warsaw, Poland

Howell Woltz is an American author living in Warsaw, Poland, whose work focuses on America's system of justice and the negative effects of Progressivism on free nations and their people.

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: PAPUA TERRORISM RISK

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: PAPUA TERRORISM RISK: Three Indonesian soldiers were killed in an ambush by separatist militants armed with small-arms and spears/bows in the Nduga distric...

PAPUA TERRORISM RISK

Three Indonesian soldiers were killed in an ambush by separatist militants armed with small-arms and spears/bows in the Nduga district of Indonesia's Papua province on 7 March. The attack was claimed by the Tentara Pembebasan Nasional Papua Barat (TPNBP), or West Papua National Liberation Army, the armed wing of Papuan separatist organization Organisasi Papua Merdeka (OPM).

The increased tempo of attacks indicates that some Tentara Pembebasan Nasional Papua Barat (TPNBP) components have adopted a more aggressive strategy, most notably the faction led by Ekianus Kogoya, which claimed the December 2018 attack and was blamed by the military for the 7 March 2019 ambush. Various Organisasi Papua Merdeka (OPM)-affiliated factions have waged a persistent low-level insurgency in Papua since the 1960s against perceived Indonesian occupation and exploitation of the country's mineral wealth; the threat has never previously escalated beyond sporadic guerrilla operations. Notably, IHS Markit recorded 14 separatist attacks in 2018 - more than the previous four years combined - and three to date in 2019. The TPNBP also claimed a 2 December 2018 attack that killed 19 construction workers involved in building the 4,300 km Trans Papua Highway, a high-profile government development initiative linking Sorong in West Papua to Merauke in Papua.

 

Increased spending on infrastructure and other development projects by Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is not turning the population against the insurgents. In fact, the government's development initiatives and the state's heavy-handed response to separatist activism are already exacerbating local anti-government sentiment. The 2 December 2018 attack, for example, was conducted the day after more than 500 protesters were arrested for participating in pro-independence rallies, and notably, more than 20,000 people were reportedly displaced in the military operation that followed the attack. Projects such as the Trans Papua Highway are also viewed by Papuan activists as an attempt to extend the state's reach into previously inaccessible interior regions. This said, there have been no clear indications that continued popular support for independence or at least self-determination has translated into increased TPNBP recruitment.

The TPNBP's reliance on traditional weapons to supplement a shortfall of military-grade weaponry indicates that the group is unable to properly equip its existing fighters, let alone equip and integrate any substantial intake of new recruits. The TPNBP's claims of several thousand members are likely to be exaggerated; authorities have claimed that Kogoya's faction probably comprises fewer than 50 fighters. This reflects the group's longstanding lack of funding. The majority of funds from diaspora sources are likely still prioritizing political pro-independence activism over insurgent groups. Although low-level extortion has targeted some mining operations in Papua, there are no indications that the group has sought to tax the local population, on which it is reliant, at least for passive, if not rudimentary, logistical and intelligence-gathering support.

The Trans Papua Highway and the Grasberg mine (operated by Freeport Inc.) are the primary commercial targets at risk in the coming months. These two sites are symbolic of Indonesia's perceived exploitation in Papua, and attacks targeting them to date do not indicate an increasing risk to commercial assets more broadly in the country. Given limited capability, the majority of insurgent attacks will still focus on security forces and those being directly deployed in construction work for the highway project given their accessibility. Aviation risk is also elevated for low-flying aircraft in the region because of deliberate targeting or misidentification. Following the ambush on 7 March 2019, military helicopters recovering the bodies of soldiers were engaged by ground fire; no major damage was reported to the helicopters.

Indicators of changing risk environment

Increasing risk

• An election win for opposition presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto will indicate the formation of a new government that is more likely to favor a heavy-handed military response against the TPNBP than the current Jokowi administration.
• A heavy-handed state response to TPNBP violence, extended to political pro-independence activism and civilian population, will probably increase popular support for militancy as the most viable method of achieving objectives.
• TPNBP operations increasingly targeting the Trans Papua Highway will probably provoke further military deployments and direct confrontation with insurgents and risk further alienating the local population.

Decreasing risk

• Prominent pro-autonomy/independence diaspora figures clearly distancing themselves from TPNBP operations and use of violence more generally will probably undermine the group's appeal and local support networks.
• Increasing international pressure on the Indonesian government to limit its military response, particularly from Australia, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, will encourage more development-focused initiatives as a means to further assimilation in Papua.
• The Indonesian state moderating its military operations against the TPNBP, thereby de-escalating the security situation and delegitimizing the TPNBP's use of violence to achieve political objectives, will further deter any recruitment to the TPNBP.

Posted 14 March 2019 by Deepa Kumar, Senior Analyst – Asia-Pacific Country Risk, IHS Markit and

Matthew Henman, Associate Director, Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center (JTIC)

 

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s...

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s...: Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s book and looking for a book publisher? Sid Harta Publishers in Melbourne Australia ha...

Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s book and looking for a book publisher?

Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s book and looking for a book publisher? Sid Harta Publishers in Melbourne Australia has published 650 authors worldwide on all platforms, eBook, print on demand Amazon and distributes hard copies globally. Go to http://sidharta.com.au and email your manuscript to author@sidharta.com.au

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: The world is overlooking the danger of the current...

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: The world is overlooking the danger of the current...:   The world is overlooking the danger of the current West Papuan resolve for independence from Indonesia. The West Papuan Freedom Mov...

The world is overlooking the danger of the current West Papuan resolve for independence from Indonesia.

 

The world is overlooking the danger of the current West Papuan resolve for independence from Indonesia. The West Papuan Freedom Movement has now successfully lodged a request with the United Nations to revisit the flawed 1969 plebiscite. This could bring Australia and Indonesia again into conflict! Read the new book release “Rockefeller and the Demise of Ibu Pertiwi” eBook and print on demand all online platforms.

 Go to http://sidharta.com.au and email your manuscript to author@sidharta.com.au

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: As the author of 'For Whom the River Runs' I am ex...

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: As the author of 'For Whom the River Runs' I am ex...: As the author of 'For Whom the River Runs' I am extremely grateful to Sid Harta  Publishing and Kerry Collison for seeing fit to...

As the author of 'For Whom the River Runs' I am extremely grateful to Sid Harta Publishing and Kerry Collison for seeing fit to publish the novel.

As the author of 'For Whom the River Runs' I am extremely grateful to Sid Harta  Publishing and Kerry Collison for seeing fit to publish the novel. Sid Harta Publishing have been very generous in its support and understand very well the needs of first time writers. Sid Harta Publishing have massaged and nurtured the original manuscript to produce a quality novel that will be well worth the read. Readers of the novel will, I believe, enjoy the  texture, writing style and of a story with layers of intrigue and meaning. Kerry Collison, Barbara Ivusic and Luke Harris have contributed much to the outcome so far. Their editorial expertise and skill is a credit to them. I can't thank them enough.

Wayne Pappin

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Border Crossing from one of our barristers in Aust...

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Border Crossing from one of our barristers in Aust...: Border Crossing from one of our barristers in Australia. ...

Border Crossing from one of our barristers in Australia.The information below should be read by everyone, whether you agree to its contents, or not

Border Crossing from one of our barristers in Australia. The information below should be read by everyone, whether you agree to its contents, or not !!!   *** NOW, LET ME SEE IF I'VE GOT THIS RIGHT.... IF YOU CROSS THE NORTH KOREAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU GET 12 YEARS HARD LABOUR. IF YOU CROSS THE IRANIAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU ARE DETAINED INDEFINITELY. IF YOU CROSS THE AFGHAN BORDER ILLEGALLY, YOU GET SHOT. IF YOU CROSS THE SAUDI ARABIAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU WILL BE JAILED. IF YOU CROSS THE CHINESE BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU MAY NEVER BE HEARD FROM AGAIN. IF YOU CROSS THE VENEZUELAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU WILL BE BRANDED A SPY AND YOUR FATE WILL BE SEALED. IF YOU CROSS THE CUBAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU WILL BE THROWN INTO A POLITICAL PRISON TO ROT. IF YOU CROSS THE AUSTRALIAN BORDER ILLEGALLY, YOU GET: * A JOB, * AN INTERPRETER, * FREE LEGAL AID, * A DRIVERS LICENCE, * A SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER, * WELFARE, * CREDIT CARDS, * FREE EDUCATION, * FREE HEALTH CARE, * DOLLARS WORTH OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS PRINTED IN YOUR  LANGUAGE * THE RIGHT TO CARRY YOUR COUNTRY'S FLAG WHILE YOU PROTEST THAT YOU DO NOT GET ENOUGH RESPECT.   Sensationalism? Then think about just this one [not so] small aspect...  The Australian Federal Government provides the following financial assistance:-      BENEFIT AUSTRALIAN AGED PENSIONER ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS/REFUGEES LIVING IN AUSTRALIA Weekly allowance $253.00 $472.50 Weekly Spouse allowance $56.00 $472.50 Additional weekly hardship allowance $0.00 $145.00       TOTAL YEARLY BENEFIT $16,068.00 $56,680.00 If I were a refugee, why would I look for work? And the current Government is saying that 'elderly Australia' is going to put the country $100 Bn into debt in the next few years?!  Please forward to all your contacts so that we can lobby not just for an increase in the aged pension and to put the welfare of Australian pensioners first, but the welfare of refugees further down the list - well after our Defence men and women, our farmers and the average Aussie battler. After all, the average pensioner alone has paid taxes and contributed to the growth of this country for the last 40 to 60 years; a Defence member voluntarily endures hardship, prepared to give up their life to preserve the way of yours; and the farmer/battler who are the backbones of this Country and Culture - never reaches for a handout but always willing to lend a hand...  When these people rarely, if ever, speak out they are shunned, ridiculed and dismissed by the Government and barely makes a headline in the news. When refugees/immigrants speak out about repression and insensitivity to their culture in Australia, it gets widespread media coverage and quick resolution by Government bodies.  *** I JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE I HAD A FIRM GRASP ON THE SITUATION - HAVE A GOOD DAY (AT WORK) Maurice G Kriss Barrister at Law  0408 298 523  PO. Box 50 Parramatta NSW 2124  Suit 611/22 Charles Street Parramatta NSW 2150  DX 8295 Parramatta  Phone: 02-9635 8603 Faz: 02-9687 9185  law@mauricekriss.com.au   www.mauricekriss.com..au

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s...

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s...: Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s book and looking for a book publisher? Sid Harta Publishers in Melbourne Australia ha...

Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s book and looking for a book publisher?

Written a story, a novel, a memoir or a children’s book and looking for a book publisher? Sid Harta Publishers in Melbourne Australia has published 650 authors worldwide on all platforms, eBook, print on demand Amazon and distributes hard copies globally. Go to http://sidharta.com.au and email your manuscript to author@sidharta.com.au

 

The world is overlooking the danger of the current West Papuan resolve for independence from Indonesia. The West Papuan Freedom Movement has now successfully lodged a request with the United Nations to revisit the flawed 1969 plebiscite. This could bring Australia and Indonesia again into conflict! Read the new book release “Rockefeller and the Demise of Ibu Pertiwi” eBook and print on demand all online platforms.

 Go to http://sidharta.com.au and email your manuscript to author@sidharta.com.au

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Why The Philippines Wants To Review Mutual Defence...

Kerry B. Collison Asia News: Why The Philippines Wants To Review Mutual Defence...:   Philippines’ Defence Secretary, Delfin Lorenzana at a press briefing at Camp Aguinaldo in late December last year spoke of the need...

Why The Philippines Wants To Review Mutual Defence Treaty With United States

 

Philippines’ Defence Secretary, Delfin Lorenzana at a press briefing at Camp Aguinaldo in late December last year spoke of the need for a review of the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) with the United States given the growing security concerns in the South China Sea. The Defence Secretary had mentioned, given the ambivalent stand of the United States with respect to the Philippines’ claim in the West Philippine Sea (as referred to by the Philippines), “the government had three options after the review: Maintain it, strengthen it, or scrap it.” The main premise of the MDT is “that the Philippines and the U.S. would assist each other when either of them is attacked by a foreign force.”

The MDT between the Philippines and the US was signed on August 30 1951, in Washington, D.C. After the Philippines gained independence on July 4 1946, a strong American presence persisted. Under the 1947 Military Bases Agreement, a number of US military bases were set up in the Philippines. Most notable ones being the Clark Air Base and the Subic Bay (US naval station).  The bases were maintained and operated by the US until 1991 and 1992 respectively. Philippines has been the oldest treaty ally of the US in Southeast Asia. Besides the MDT, the two countries have signed other agreements as well like the Visiting Forces Agreement in 1998, The Enhanced Defence Cooperation in 2014. After the 1992 withdrawal of the US from Manila, the relationship between the two countries improved further in the economic, defence and the security realms. The major thrust of the security relationship rests on the 1951 MDT. Scholars have even branded the US as the Philippines’ ‘security umbrella’. In his September 2018 meeting with US Secretary of State, Michael Pompeo, Lorenzana had said, “Most in our defense establishments agree that the Philippines-US alliance remains robust based on an enduring history of close engagement and our unwavering commitment to work together on shared values.” Therefore, the current statement of Delfin Lorenzana in December last year “that this treaty was signed in the Cold War era, do we still have a Cold War today? Is it still relevant to our security? Maybe not anymore” comes as a surprise.

The main point of objection is the absence of an ‘instant retaliatory clause’ but to go through the constitutional processes, that is the need to consult the US Congress before taking any retaliatory action. Furthermore, Article 5 of the Treaty is, “an armed attack on either of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the Parties, or on the Island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.” This clause has again triggered a lot of debate in Manila as to “what “Pacific” refers to. Does it mean the Pacific Ocean or the Pacific area of operations which encompasses everything west of the US West Coast up to the Indian Ocean?”

Philippines is currently facing its biggest external threat in the form of an expansionist China in the South China Sea according to Filipino analysts like Richard Heydarian. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague had awarded the Philippines sovereign rights and defined its maritime entitlements over three disputed areas in the Spratlys: Panganiban (Mischief) Reef, Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal and Recto (Reed) Bank. Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal off Zambales was declared as a common fishing ground over which no country has control. But China had completely ignored the ruling and built fortified artificial islands in the South China Sea including in the Panganiban Reef. The Chinese sealed off Panatag and harassed resupply operations to Filipino troops on Ayungin. The Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin has said in a statement recently that the Philippines will protest against the Chinese opening a maritime rescue centre in the Fiery Cross Reef. The territorial dispute is listed by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) as the primary source of the country’s external threat.

This has prompted Manila to demand that the US takes a stronger stand in the South China Sea issue in favor of its erstwhile treaty ally. Though the US is undertaking Freedom of Navigation and overflight exercises in the South China Sea, it still remains non-committal on whether it will defend the Philippines in times of an armed attack. The US had in the past taken no stand during the takeover by the Chinese of the Philippines’ claimed Mischief Reef in 1995 and also during the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff between the Philippines and China. This has not gone down well in the Filipino defence, security circles and most importantly the country’s citizens.

However in an address on the eve of Chinese New Year, the leader of the Philippines said the “friendship and cooperation forged between the Philippines and China” had led to “greater prosperity and economic growth”. Philippines unlike in the past where it was too pro- US, is now like most other countries in the region following a hedging strategy, which means the US needs to do much more to keep the trust of its treaty ally intact. Under the Trump administration, US’s Asia Policy has become a dicey one. On one hand, we saw President Trump pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but on December 31 2018, the release of the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA) is focused on the promotion of American interests in the Indo-Pacific region in terms of defense and security partnerships. In the ARIA, the US “promotes a joint Indo-Pacific diplomatic strategy in Asian waters through joint maritime exercises in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.” It also reaffirms its treaty commitments to countries like the Thailand and the Philippines. Though the ARIA mentions about the appropriation of US$150,000,000 to the Indo-Pacific region for each fiscal year from 2019-2023. But at the same time, financial assistance will be subjected to a budget cut in countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar and US’s closest security ally in ASEAN, the Philippines, due to human rights issues. According to academics, Academics Gregory Poling and Eric Sayers, “if the Philippines withdraws from the MDT it would be a severe blow to US interests in the Indo-Pacific.”

This in a way is reflective of the yearning of smaller countries in this region for a more proactive role to be played that caters to their interests by the Big powers like the US. This yearning presents both challenges and opportunities for the Big Powers. Even countries like the US in the current times despite the ongoing trade war with China is delicately balancing its relations with Beijing.  So to claim outright that it will take the side of its treaty ally during a clash with its very crucial trading partner puts the US in a tough spot. The Scarborough Shoal 2012 standoff had also put the Asia Pivot policy of the Obama administration under test and many had questioned the genuineness of the policy when the US maintained a neutral stand in the standoff. Philippines’ wish for a stronger MDT has again put the US in a difficult situation. The US-Philippines 2014 Enhanced Defence Co-operation Agreement (EDCA) also depends on the MDT. That agreement allows the US to construct facilities and pre-position and store defence equipment, supplies and material within Philippine military bases and to deploy troops on a rotational basis there. Given the Philippines’ change in attitude towards China and its new hedging strategy, according to Poling and Sayers, “continuance of the treaty and the EDCA is critical to US interests in the region, not necessarily to those of the Philippines whose relations with China may suffer.”

India is revamping her Indo-Pacific policy through its Act East and thereby also needs to take cognizance of the demands of the smaller countries in the Southeast Asian region beside countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore. The ASEAN has always believed in ‘consensus’ and the visions and desires of all the member countries will be taken into account when the ‘ASEAN vision or concept of the Indo-Pacific’ is formulated at the end of the ongoing deliberations on the Indo-Pacific at the platform of the ASEAN and the East Asia Summit. The ASEAN countries have propagated for an “inclusive Indo-Pacific framework”, therefore at the end, picking sides will not be a viable option for either the Big powers in case of sore issues like the South China Sea and even for the smaller countries in the emerging dynamics of the Indo-Pacific and the changing global order. Therefore, these demands of the smaller countries needs to be tackled by India with a lot of caution and diplomatic acumen.

 

By Premesha Saha

Observer Research Foundation

ORF was established on 5 September 1990 as a private, not for profit, ’think tank’ to influence public policy formulation. The Foundation brought together, for the first time, leading Indian economists and policymakers to present An Agenda for Economic Reforms in India. The idea was to help develop a consensus in favour of economic reforms.